You know the annoying guy in your NCAA office pool who just picks the top seeds all the way down? That's me this year. About the only thing I was conflicted on was the Best Directing Oscar, and for that I couldn't help but go with the consensus. Otherwise, seems that there will be very few upsets.
As the night goes on, keep an eye on the Best Production Design and Best Editing Oscars, those'll be a key indicator of how things are swinging. (Though, as my picks show, a "12 Years" loss in those categories isn't necessarily a sign it's going to lose the top prize.)